The logic behind Thomas Tuchel picking Ivan Toney, England’s emergency hammer

In case of emergency, break glass. Thomas Tuchel ’s World Cup squad was largely as predicted , bar perhaps a Djed Spence here and a Cole Palmer there , but there was a surprise when Ivan Toney ’s name emerged in the frame on Thursday, England’s window-hammer. This was Toney’s role at Euro 2024, and he was extremely effective , coming off the bench in added time to flick an assist for Harry Kane in the last-gasp win over Slovakia, before appearing in extra time to score in the shootout against Switzerland in the quarter-finals.

Toney is probably not going to win England the World Cup. But there’s a chance he might keep them in it. The latter element – Toney’s penalty prowess – should not be underestimated, and it provokes a wider question: should penalties really be a factor in deciding a tournament squad?

Well, perhaps more so than ever before. Ivan Toney was one of the surprise call-ups in Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup squad (PA) If England are going to win the World Cup, coming through five knockout rounds, the statistics say they will have to win two shootouts. The reigning world champions, Argentina, won two games on penalties, and that was before this year’s bloated 48-team tournament with a new round of 32 (formerly known as “the World Cup”).

There is conflicting evidence about just how effective it is to throw on shootout specialists late in extra time. Southgate memorably brought on Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho to take penalties against Italy in the Euro 2020 final, and both missed their kicks. That came only a few weeks after the Europa League final, in which both Manchester United and Sevilla brought on players to take penalties – Juan Mata, Alex Telles and Dani Raba – and all three scored.