Raiders schedule: Win probability for every Las Vegas game in 2026
ESPN's Mike Clay has posted the win probability for every Raiders game this season along with the projected win total.
This year's schedule for the Las Vegas Raiders appears to be about a 60/40 split versus elite teams and terrible ones, with pretty much no in between. It's feast or famine. Though if you look at the win probability, it would suggest the Raiders are looking up at their opponent nearly the entire season.
ESPN's Mike Clay went about putting together the win probably for every game this season. Here's what each Raiders game looks like. Week 1: vs Dolphins -- 73% Week 2: AT Chargers -- 16% Week 3: AT Saints -- 36% Week 4: vs Chiefs -- 28% Week 5: AT Patriots -- 17% Week 6: vs Bills -- 27% Week 7: vs Rams -- 10% Week 8: AT Jets -- 35% Week 9: AT 49ers -- 18% Week 10: vs Seahawks -- 20% Week 11: AT Broncos -- 12% Week 12: AT Browns -- 40% Week 14: vs Chargers -- 29% Week 15: vs Broncos -- 23% Week 16: vs Titans -- 60% Week 17: AT Cardinals-- 48% Week 18: AT Chiefs -- 16% Projected win total -- 5.
1 (29th) You may notice, there are only two games this season the Raiders actually have a favorable win probability (Dolphins, Titans). And yet they are projected at 5. 1 wins.
Win probability apparently isn't actually predicting who will win a game, but rather who seems more likely to win. But, as we all know, who *actually* wins depends on a lot of other factors. That being said, my big question would be why the Raiders are not favored over what appear to be clearly worse teams like the Browns, Cardinals, or Jets?