How to more accurately predict the Bills 53-man roster

DENVER, COLORADO - JANUARY 17: Mecole Hardman Jr. #16 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a 4 yard touchdown against the Denver Broncos during the first quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Empower Field At Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images The Buffalo Bills are starting organized team activities (OTAs).

They’ll get onto the field in shorts and helmets with very little contact, and they’ll begin running drills and installing plays. There will be camp observations from numerous first-hand sources, which will be the most viewed pieces of content of the spring. And a lot of it will be in service of the following question: who will make the Buffalo Bills 2026 53-man roster?

Naturally, we as fans will all be thinking that too. Every time Jackson Acker makes a play out of the backfield in the passing game, we’ll wonder what it means for his camp battle with Ben VanSumeran. Every time Mecole Hardman and Trent Sherfield return a punt or beat a gunner, it’ll add to a running tally in our heads about which one of those players (if either) should be the last Bills receiver on their 53.

Preseason games will provide a taste of “real” football, but they can frequently distract from the most important factors that go into actually identifying who’s going to make an NFL roster and who’s not. The emotional pinnacle of the Hall of Fame game kickoff may quickly dissipate into a “who is this guy” remark during the fourth quarter of that same game, but preseason games also inject variance into our own thought processes because they introduce the idea that HOW a player plays in these exhibitions is somehow the most predictive part of final roster analysis. The truth is, WHEN and WITH WHOM a player plays is far more predictive of their roster positions than HOW a player plays.