IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 10 matches to go, KKR's chances rise to 10% - odds for each team explained
With 10 games left, LSG and MI are out, while GT and RCB are nearing playoff qualification. SRH and RR have strong chances for the top four, with PBKS holding an even shot. CSK's playoff hopes have diminished, and KKR and DC face slim chances.
With 10 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT can only miss out through the net run rate route and RCB have almost qualified while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. RR has a better than even chance while PBKS has a roughly even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly.
CSK’s chances have taken a beating with Friday’s loss and KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 1,024 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. We look at the probabilities: Despite their loss on Saturday, GT are assured of finishing within the top four in terms of points (though they could be tied with up to four other teams), and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly remains quite high at 80.
5% RCB have an 99. 6% chance of finishing among the top four by points and an 86. 3% chance of being among the top two SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points is at 82% and they have a 47.
3% chance of being among the top two RR’s chances of getting into the top four slots on points have improved to 59. 1% and they have a 26. 6% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots PBKS’ chances of ending up among the top four on points are at 50.