IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 13 matches to go, RCB surge to 99% as KKR crash to 2.6% - odds for each team explained
With 13 league-stage games remaining, GT and RCB are almost assured of playoff spots, while SRH and PBKS remain well placed. CSK and RR have slightly better-than-even chances of making the top four, but KKR and DC are nearly out. Among 8,192 possible result combinations, GT and RCB also hold the strongest chances of finishing in the top two.
With 13 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT and RCB have almost qualified, while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. PBKS, too, remain in a good position to get there.
CSK and RR have a better-than-even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 8,192 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight teams remaining in the race.
We look at the probabilities: GT have a 99. 7% chance of finishing within the top four in terms of points (including possible ties), and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly, are an impressive 82. 6%.
With the win on Wednesday, RCB have a 99% chance of finishing among the top four by points and a 77. 6% chance of being among the top two. SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points are at 77%, and they have only a 31.