How much does run differential mean to the St Louis Cardinals?
It might come as a surprise, but negative run differential teams sometimes make the postseason. I am not saying that the 2026 Cardinals will finish with a minus in runs, but I’m not saying they are going to make the playoffs, either. Anyhow, I thought I might go all the way back to 1981, let’s take a journey back into time.
The 1981 Cardinals outperformed their pythagorean record (what their record should be assuming a normal balance according to run differential) by only three games. That is because of a positive run differential. But, in 1983 they also had a positive run differential and finished 4 games below .
500. In 1984, the Cardinals were 6 games above . 500 but with a run differential barely above zero.
They should’ve been just over . 500, according to their pythagorean record. The 1986 Cardinals did the right thing and absolutely nailed their pythagorean record, finishing at 79-82 with a -10 run differential.
The 1991 Cardinals should have finished at . 500 but were a few games over . 500.
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