IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 14 matches to go, GT surge to 99.6% as SRH slip to 76.8% - odds for each team explained
With 14 games left, Gujarat Titans are almost guaranteed a top-four finish with a 99. 6% chance, while RCB also has a strong 88. 1% probability.
Sunrisers Hyderabad and Punjab Kings' playoff hopes are still alive but diminished. Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals hold a slight edge for the top four, with Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Capitals facing slim chances.
With 14 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs and DC is barely hanging in there. GT has almost qualified while RCB and SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. PBKS too remains in a good position to get there.
CSK and RR have a better than even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR have a slim chance. There remain 16,384 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.
We look at the probabilities: Tuesday’s win has almost ensured GT will finish within the top four in terms of points with a 99. 6% chance of that happening, and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly is an impressive 84. 5%.