Media analyst: Streamers would need to offer NFL ‘astronomical’ rights fee for league to move off broadcast

Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images The NFL’s effort to renegotiate media rights deals early has only become more uncertain in recent weeks. The league, which earlier this year reportedly set out to ink new deals with all five of its current primary broadcast partners before the 2026-27 season begins in September , almost certainly will not meet that goal. The reasons for that are multiple, but among them is the federal government’s recent attention on sports fragmentation, particularly with regard to the NFL transitioning games that were once found on traditional broadcast or cable networks over to streaming services.

While it appears as if the federal government will be all bark and no bite when it comes to its pressure on the NFL, with probes from both the DOJ and FCC likely resulting in no tangible actions against the league, the newfound attention from Washington has been enough to at least give the NFL pause . Further, even if federal pressure doesn’t result in anything tangible, it might be enough to spook the NFL, at least temporarily, into keeping the vast majority of its games on broadcast television, rather than selling another major package of games to a streamer. That’s the opinion of Business Insider media reporter Peter Kafka, who appeared on a recent episode of John Ourand’s The Varsity podcast and claimed it would take a huge offer for the NFL to move a package of games to streaming now.

Discussing the idea of the NFL selling a package of games currently allocated to a linear partner to a streamer, Kafka said, “I still think they would be uneasy about that from just a pure commercial reach, and I think politically it is too much of a tripwire for them to touch. What would have to happen is an Apple or a Netflix would have to offer a astronomical number for them to make it worth their while to get into what surely would be a political fight. ” Kafka is saying the NFL likely recognizes it is still too early in the transition to streaming for the NFL to move a large swath of games to a platform like Netflix or Apple, especially in this political climate.

One of those platforms would need to offer an outrageous sum of money for the NFL to consider such a move, Kafka believes. That may be true, which could help explain why networks are feeling emboldened as to not yet engage with the NFL over a new rights deal, perhaps even deciding to wait until after the 2029-30 season when the NFL’s opt-out clauses hit. So far, streamers have not been willing to put up the “astronomical” numbers the NFL would require to make such a bold transition.