Reverse lineup protection: Chandler Simpson’s impact on Junior Caminero
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - APRIL 06: Chandler Simpson #14 of the Tampa Bay Rays looks to run during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Tropicana Field on April 06, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images Thanks to Ian Malinowski and Adam Sanford in our Slack channel for suggesting that Chandler Simpson may be getting more pitches to run on when Junior Caminero is at the plate . Lineup protection is the idea that a hitter performs better when a strong hitter bats directly behind them in the lineup.
The theory is that pitchers will be less willing to pitch around or intentionally avoid the first hitter because they don’t want to face another dangerous bat with runners on base. While research generally suggests lineup protection has only marginal effects , something different may be happening with Junior Caminero when Chandler Simpson is on first base. Surprisingly, Caminero is actually seeing fewer fastballs and appears to be getting pitched around more often in those situations.
This may not necessarily be a bad thing; Caminero appears to ““level up” in these situations. Below are the rates at which hitters have seen four and two-seam fastballs since 2025: League average all situations: 47. 2% League average with just runners on first base: 48.
0% League-wide, the presence of a runner on first base has almost no effect on fastball usage. This trend is also evident when we look at the break-down per team: There are a few base runners who break this trend, but none to the extent that Chandler Simpson changes things. Rays hitters see 47.
9% of fastballs overall and 47. 3% with just a runner on first base, but that number jumps to 54. 4% when that runner on first base is Simpson.
Continue to the original source for the full article.