Best value bets for UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland

UFC 328 is Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, headlined by the bad-blood feud between middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev and boisterous American challenger Sean Strickland. In addition to that title scrap, flyweight champ Joshua Van makes the first defense of his flyweight title against Tatsuro Taira. All in all, it’s a pretty fun card, so let’s get into it.

Khamzat Chimaev (-600) vs. Sean Strickland (+430) (Fightnomics) As much of a striker versus grappler matchup as you can have. Strickland got past another grappler in Hernandez to earn this title shot, but Hernandez hardly utilized his wrestling skills.

Strickland defended a single takedown against Hernandez and went on to dominate the stand up, culminating in a TKO finish. While that was an unusual strategy for Hernandez, Chimaev isn’t the sort to fight outside his lane. To win his title, Chimaev turned in one of the ugliest, yet most dominating, performances in title fight history, spending nearly 22 minutes of the five-round fight controlling his opponent on the mat.

If he’s willing to accept some boos, he should be more than willing to take Strickland down at any cost. That leaves small moments at the beginning of each round when Strickland could land some strikes in retreat. But Strickland’s knockout threat isn’t the one-punch variety, but rather the slow accumulation of damage.