Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope
The Indianapolis Colts have modest expectations, according to sportsbooks, but their schedule may offer hope for more.
Though the Indianapolis Colts have middling expectations, they have an opportunity to make a playoff run. Sharp Football Analysis breaks down NFL schedule strengths for the coming season, placing the Colts with the ninth-easiest. That may give them a better chance to reach the postseason, even though Las Vegas sportsbooks largely put their projected win total at 8.
5. The Vegas projections make sense, considering they went 9-8 in 2023 and 8-9 the previous two seasons. How Sharp Football Analysis rates NFL strength of schedule Sharp notes that basing the coming season's schedule strength on the previous season's record is unreliable, and that taking into account offseason changes in personnel, coaches and injury status more accurately reflects a team's projected record and schedule strength.
Sportsbooks, Sharp said, use that method. Sharp adds that luck — such as tipped passes that result in interceptions and fumbles — that played into a team's previous season cannot be forecasted into the coming season's projection. Why is this important?
In 2025, just two of eight teams with the toughest schedules, according to Sharp, made the playoffs ( Houston Texans , Los Angeles Rams). That list included the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs. 2026 NFL strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, with projected win totals, according to Las Vegas sportsbooks According to Sharp's schedule analysis and Las Vegas win projections, the Detroit Lions , Baltimore Ravens , Philadelphia Eagles , San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs should plan on playing deep into January.