Can stats pick out the Championship play-off winner?

[BBC] Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough or Hull City are just three games away from joining Coventry City and Ipswich Town in next season's Premier League. The four sides will contest this season's Championship play-offs, getting under way on Friday. In the semi-finals, Millwall will face Hull over two legs, while Southampton take on Middlesbrough.

The winner of those matches will face each other at Wembley for a place in England's top flight and financial benefits worth north of £100m. But what does play-off history tell us about which team will be best equipped to win the play-offs? BBC Sport looks at the trends and patterns in the Championship since the second tier rebranded in 2004 to see who could return to England's top flight for next season.

Does a higher league position equate to better play-off chances? Southampton finished fourth in the Championship two seasons ago and went on to gain promotion, beating Leeds United at Wembley in the final [Getty Images] In the 21 play-off campaigns since the Championship era began in 2004-05, the club finishing in third during the regular season has won promotion the most often. Recent history shows that teams finishing in fourth place are well set up for promotion, too.

The past six Championship play-off winners have all finished in either third or fourth, of which four successful sides have finished in fourth spot. With nine of the 21 play-off campaigns in the Championship being won by the side finishing third, Millwall are historically the best bet, but fourth-placed Southampton might be a better shout given the recent trend. As for fifth and sixth place, the most recent fifth-placed club to win promotion were Aston Villa in 2018-19.