Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 4

The Yankees (22–11) and Orioles (15–18) close out their four-game series tonight with New York looking for the sweep of their American League East rival. The Yankees have won the first three games of the series by a combined 27–9 margin, including an 11–3 win yesterday. New York sits atop the AL East at 22–11, backed by a lineup that has been scorching over its last 10 games hitting .

266 while outscoring their opponents by 25 runs and a pitching staff with a 2. 45 ERA. The Yankees are now 17–0 when they out-hit their opponents, a trend that has helped to define this series so far.

The Orioles are 15–18 overall and 6–9 on the road as they look to salvage the finale of this series. As strong and productive as the Yankees’ bats and pitching have been, the oppositie holds for the O’s whose hurlers have posted a 6. 30 ERA over their last 10 games while being outscored by 17 runs.

A look deeper inside the numbers finds the Orioles are 12–4 when scoring five or more runs, a mark they have not reached in any of the series’ first three games. Tonight, Baltimore turns to Shane Baz (1–2, 4. 50 ERA), whose fastball velocity ranks in the 88th percentile, giving him the swing‑and‑miss potential to keep the Orioles competitive if he commands the zone.