The battle for sixth... and why teams might need to lose on final day
In short, when it comes to dishing out European spots, Uefa goes by domestic positions and who won the European trophies first, before factoring in the EPS. So if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, that EPS spot would be passed down to the team in sixth - who would qualify for the Champions League. However, if Villa finish in the top four then winning the Europa League would make no difference to any other English teams.
In this situation the sixth-placed finisher would qualify for the Europa League. With Aston Villa six points clear in fifth spot, sixth appears to be the highest any of the other teams could finish. At the moment Bournemouth are on 52 points, one point clear of Brentford , who are in turn one point above Brighton .
Bournemouth and Brentford have never played in any European competition before, while Brighton 's only Uefa campaign was in the 2023-24 Europa League. Chelsea are four points behind the Cherries, but have a game in hand against Nottingham Forest on Monday. Fulham are level on points with Chelsea .
Everton - who have a game in hand against Manchester City - and Sunderland are on 47 points, so just about in the race. Newcastle , Crystal Palace and Leeds could still mathematically - but not realistically - qualify for the Champions League. Whoever just misses out on sixth will have the compensation of securing at least a Conference League spot, which as it stands goes to seventh place.
All the Villa/fifth-place shenanigans do not affect that - because if England gets that extra Champions League spot they lose a Europa League place. But, and of course there's a but, eighth place could yet qualify for the Conference League. If Manchester City win the FA Cup, or if Chelsea win it and finish in the top seven - they are currently ninth - then the European spots will change.