What’s in a hot start for the Diamondbacks’ players?

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MAY 01: Ildemaro Vargas #6 of the Arizona Diamondbacks singles during the first inning of the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 01, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Zoe Davis/Getty Images) | Getty Images Introduction There’s a baseball maxim that says, “You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it. ” I couldn’t find who the quote is originally attributed to, but there are plenty of former players and managers that could have said something like that.

It also has the added benefit of being both internally consistent and being backed by evidence. Of the 12 eventual playoff teams , a whopping nine were in such position at the end of April last year . The year before, it was the exact same ratio with nine of the eventual playoff field in playoff position at the end of the first month of play.

Obviously, if you start out hot, it gives your team more room for error for the inevitable injuries and poor play that comes with a 162-game marathon. It also demonstrates that if you’re on the outside looking in a month in, it’s more likely that you’re going to miss out than you’ll be able to climb over the teams that are above you. There are certainly exceptions: the 2024 Astros had the second-worst record at the end of April that year, but finished the year going 78-54 to secure their division and the number one seed in the American League.

But that’s likely the exception that proves the rule in my opinion. Regardless, we’re not talking about the playoffs (yet). Instead, that exercise had me wondering if the same is true for individual players whose statistics can obviously fluctuate even more wildly than a team’s over the course of the season.