Kentucky Derby pick to win: Renegade is the favorite, but a 15-1 longshot is the choice

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Even in a year when it seems like there are a few clear standouts in the crop of 3-year old Thoroughbreds, handicapping the Kentucky Derby can seem like a jigsaw puzzle. Trying to figure out this year’s Derby is far more complicated than that.

Though a semi-consensus has formed around five horses being in the top tier of contenders — Renegade (4-1 odds), Commandment (6-1), The Puma (10-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and Further Ado (6-1) are likely to get the most support from bettors — all come with various question marks. At 4-1, Renegade enters the 152nd Kentucky Derby as the favorite. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) Michael Reaves via Getty Images The questions to be answered Can Renegade, who won the Arkansas Derby impressively, get a good enough trip coming out of the No.

1 post position , which hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner in 40 years? Though Commandment narrowly won the two big prep races in Florida this spring, why did two of the nation’s most prominent jockeys (Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz) jump off him after wins in favor of other mounts? After getting caught at the wire by Commandment in the 1 ⅛-mile Florida Derby, does The Puma really want 1 ¼ miles?

How does the addition of blinkers change the picture for Chief Wallabee, who has run just three times for two-time Derby winning trainer Bill Mott? Does Further Ado’s 11-length win in the Blue Grass Stakes make him the real deal, or is he simply a much better horse on the Keeneland surface, where he’s run his two fastest races, than he is at other tracks? With so much guesswork around the favorites, this Kentucky Derby should offer some incredible betting opportunities in the next tier of contenders.