How An NBA-Style Lottery Would Change The NFL Draft
A deep-dive analysis into the economics of tanking and how an NBA-style draft lottery would reshape expected value for teams looking to make a splash in the NFL Draft.
NEW ORLEANS, LA - FEBRUARY 8: A general view of the 2025 NFL Draft logo at the NFL Experience fan festival a day prior to Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles inside of the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center on February 08, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) Getty Images The football world is getting ready for its favorite springtime event: the NFL Draft.
Mock drafts abound and anticipation floods NFL fans as they wait to see which new talent their teams will bring in. This year’s No. 1 pick belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who finished with the league’s worst record during the 2025 campaign.
They are widely expected to select Fernando Mendoza , a quarterback prospect who represents the opportunity to develop a franchise star. It is exactly the type of pick that can help turn around a team trying to compete in a loaded AFC West. The coveted No.
1 overall slot consistently goes to the worst team in the league. However, that system can create perverse incentives for teams that are out of the playoff hunt to perform worse late in the season in order to secure a better draft pick. This past year, the Las Vegas Raiders were accused by some fans of “tanking,” the idea that a team intentionally loses to improve its draft position.
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