Outrunning JaMarcus Russell: The path to success for Fernando Mendoza
Peyton Manning set the gold standard. JaMarcus Russell set the floor. Here is the statistical benchmark Fernando Mendoza must hit to justify going No.
1.
Since Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall in the 1998 NFL Draft, 21 quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick. Indiana ’s Fernando Mendoza is widely projected to join that group when the Las Vegas Raiders kick off the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23.
What will it take for Mendoza to be a successful No. 1 NFL draft pick? USA TODAY analyzed the career approximate value (AV) of those 21 quarterbacks, plus Manning, using data from Pro Football Reference .
Approximate value is a rough gauge of a player’s performance over a given time span, making it a reasonable way to estimate the success of recent quarterbacks picked No. 1 in the draft. Out of the 22 quarterbacks, Manning far and away tops the list with a career AV of 271.