Mel Kiper Jr. reveals how NIL impacts NFL Draft, players’ decisions to return to college

A year ago, shortly after the 2025 NFL Draft ended, five quarterbacks appeared in CBS Sports’ way-too-early mock . Fast-forward and only Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson are appearing in some first-round mock drafts – neither of which were projected at that point. The approach to draft decisions has changed since the NIL era began in college football as more players, notably quarterbacks, go back to school for another season with hopes of improving their stock.

But to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. , there’s some risk that comes with the possible reward in those cases. SUBSCRIBE to the On3 NIL and Sports Business Newsletter When the NFL announced the group of underclassmen to declare for the 2026 draft, a downward trend continued.

More players are choosing another season of experience in college instead of the draft, which can help them go higher on the board the following year. Jayden Daniels is a recent example of someone who ran it back and, after winning the Heisman Trophy, went from a projected Day 2 pick to No. 2 overall.

However, Kiper said that’s not always the case. There are multiple factors that come into play both during the college season and in the evaluation process that show both sides of the decision. “They can stay in college and develop, and sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn’t,” Kiper said Thursday on a conference call with reporters.