On Extending Young Players and Reading the Economic Tea Leaves

Even assuming McGonigle breaks arbitration records (firmly on the table, given that he’s hitting . 311/. 417/.

492 in his first 72 MLB PA with peripheral stats that suggest he really is that good), that values his age 27-29 seasons at $90-100m. He’s one of a spate of top prospects to sign for big money right at the beginning of, or even shortly before, their MLB careers so far this spring: Several young but established big league stars have also extended recently, including Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, Red Sox ace Garrett Crochett, and Orioles starter Shane Baz. The Jays were active in that market last year, signing Alejandro Kirk last season to a deal that now looks like theft after his breakout 2025 and then paying Vladimir Guerrero jr.

what amounts to a retail price free agent deal to keep him in Toronto for the remainder of his career. The Jays don’t have any clear extension candidates right now. Daulton Varsho is the obvious name, but he’s having something of a weird start to the season with his speed, range and power significantly down so far but his contact rate and overall offensive production looking excellent.

Combined with a potential offensive breakout being derailed by injury last year, he might be a guy where both team and agent decide to wait and see before valuing his free agency. I still think this trend is of interest to us on this site, though, because it probably reveals something about the direction the economics of the sport and the process of collective bargaining between the MLB Players’ Association and the league are headed. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) runs through the end of this season, at which point it’s been widely predicted that there might be a lockout.