Masters 2026: This year's troubling trend surrounding 54-hole leaders
Only four times in 13 events this season on the PGA Tour has the leader heading into the final round actually closed out the victory
AUGUSTA, Ga. — Congratulations, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young. You’re co-leading the 2026 Masters heading into the Sunday’s final round.
That would seem to be a good thing; 51 Masters champions have converted 54-hole leads en route to claiming their green jackets—including McIlroy a year ago. That 57. 3-percent win can’t be a bad omen for either golfer.
Before you get too excited, however, there’s another trend for Young and McIlroy to be aware of, a more recent one from the PGA Tour in 2026. Call it the curse of the 54-hole lead. Just four times out of 13 tournaments so far this season has a third-round leader hung on to win a PGA Tour event.
That’s a 30. 7 percent rate. It’s not just players who have led with 18 holes remaining that have struggle to close out victories.
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