Unstoppable force vs immovable object: Why Paris-Roubaix may prove too much even for Tadej Pogacar

In good news for sports broadcasters, this Sunday marks a rare day in the cycling season which is unlikely to see a dramatic fall-off in views somewhere between 50 and 100km from the finish line. Because this is Paris-Roubaix – and rather than dropping all his rivals and casually soloing away to victory as normal, with exhausted observers switching off in the face of the inevitable, here Tadej Pogacar has a real fight on his hands. Perhaps saying that out loud will guarantee another romp to victory for the 21st-century Cannibal.

But Paris-Roubaix is now the only Monument – one of cycling’s five most prestigious one-day Classics – the double world champion and five-time Grand Tour winner is yet to win, and it remains the toughest race on his calendar. Last Sunday he won a record-equalling third Tour of Flanders title, putting him clear in second on the list of all-time Monument winners with 12, behind only the legendary Eddy Merckx. It continued his habit of mercilessly rewriting the history books, as he became the first rider to win four Monuments in a row.

He has gone for the quality not quantity approach to this year, and has won every race he has competed in so far: Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, and now the Tour of Flanders. Victory in Roubaix would make him the first man in five decades, and only the fourth ever, to win all five of cycling’s premier one-day races, and the first non-Belgian (the others are Merckx and another two legendary names, Rik Van Looy and Roger De Vlaeminck). He would be only the 12th rider to complete the Flanders-Roubaix cobbled double in the same year.

As ever with Pogacar, while it seems that while there is little he has left to win, there is plenty more history to write. Those are the statistics. But cycling is not purely about statistics, and even a man of preternatural ability such as Pogacar can come unstuck.