Masters 2026: History says the Masters is already down to just 16 players
Eighty-nine editions of the Masters produces some pretty reliable stats on who has a chance to win based on their first-round scores
AUGUSTA, Ga. — Stop me if you’ve heard this before… Rory McIlroy leads the Masters. The defending champion joined Sam Burns atop the leaderboard after an opening-round 67 on Thursday.
In his 18th appearance at Augusta National, this is only McIlroy’s second time shooting 67 or lower to start the tournament. While the Northern Irishman is without doubt the favorite to win now, who else has a chance? Or, perhaps more interestingly, who doesn’t?
History suggests the list of potential champions is smaller than you might think. Stats guru Justin Ray shared on X the fact that the winner in 79 of the 89 editions of the Masters was within five shots of the lead after 18 holes. More Masters Coverage The Masters Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy's liberation arrived right back where it began Rough Start Masters 2026: Bryson DeChambeau's week in Augusta could be over early if this historic stat holds true Masters 2026 Masters 2026: Bone-dry and fast conditions could make this Augusta National's toughest test in a long time With McIlroy and Burns at five under par, that means only those who ended Thursday in red numbers are likely still in the hunt.
There are 16 players under par after 18 holes. Among the group is the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed and Justin Rose. As for pre-tournament favorites missing from that group, most prominent is Jon Rahm.