Live Masters Win Probability 2026: Leaderboard & Betting Odds Tracker

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here . Everyone spent all week analyzing (and submitting) their Masters picks for the 2026 edition of the prestigious golf tournament, but there's still plenty of value to be found after the first round tees off.

As the weekend unfolds at Augusta, the Masters odds will shift, creating unique (and short-lived) opportunities to jump on in-play markets. The most important, obviously, is who will win the Green Jacket this year — and to help you follow along with the ever-changing Masters win probability , we've got a live probability chart (courtesy of Kalshi ) for the biggest favorites, along with a snapshot of the leaderboard heading into each round of play. Live 2026 Masters win probability With the first round in the books, Rory McIlroy (25%) is now the current favorite after co-leading with Sam Burns at -5.

Scottie Scheffler's win probability at Kalshi has ticked up from 14% to 19% after finishing at -3, followed by Xander Schauffele at 8%, Burns at 6. 8%, and Justin Rose at 5. 4%.

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