Armchair 101: The Challenge Of Judging Decisions In Real Time
SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 03: Jeff McNeil #22 of the Athletics watches the fireworks show with his family after the game between the Houston Astros and the Athletics at Sutter Health Park on Friday, April 3, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Eakin Howard/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images Hindsight in 20/20 and hindsight analysis is 20 times as annoying as my Uncle Perv trying to play the bagpipes. What is the art of sitting back as a fan and judging the difficult decisions a manager, a base coach, or a player have to make long before the metrics tell you what his odds were?
Process vs. Outcome Judging process, rather than just leaning on outcomes, can be extremely counter-intuitive. To drive this point home let me offer a scenario in which presumably all fans will agree on the proper strategy.
In a tie game, 9th inning, the Yankees have runners at 2B and 3B with 2 outs and Trent Grisham due up against your RH reliever. Looming on deck is the legendary Aaron Judge. Do you pitch to Grisham or do you walk him intentionally to load the bases and face Judge instead?
I will go out on a limb and say you would do what 30 out of 30 managers would do and that is to go after Grisham. Here’s the catch. If you IBB Grisham and foolishly choose to pitch to Judge instead, with nowhere to put him, odds are you will wind up looking good.
Because if you run that 100 times Judge, whose career OBP is an elite . 412, will bail out your terrible idea about 59 times. Never mind that Grisham gets out 2/3 of the time if you just go after him, with another 12 of those 100 outcomes being just the walk you were considering anyway.
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