In The Lab: The Law of Sunken Costs
Would Cristian Javier be more effective in the bullpen?
Certainly, the results for the first week plus of games have been mostly positive. The Astros are a winning baseball team overall and that is huge news given how they have started the last few seasons. As an analyst, I work with a number of different precepts to start every season.
The manager’s job in April and May is fairly challenging. You somehow have to marry the concept of immediate results with the idea that you are dealing with small sample sizes. One of the monikers that we have heard around these parts is that eventually numbers will mirror what is “on the back of the baseball card.
” I will simply say that adage is overused and overly simplistic. The picture in the rearview mirror is always clearer than the one on the windshield and that is doubly true in the early going. If there is one overwhelming negative and area of concern it is the early season performance of Cristian Javier.
This is where the law of sunken costs come into play. There is a marked difference between the taxable salary and the overall salary. Taxable salaries are calculated by the average AAV over the life of the contract.
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