Breaking Down Caleb Williams’ 2025 Season, Part V: 2026 Preview

CINCINNATI, OHIO - NOVEMBER 02: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears celebrates after beating the Cincinnati Bengals 47-42 in the game at Paycor Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images Series Roadmap Part 0: Inside the Evaluation Part I: Game Grades Part II: True Passer Rating Part III: On-Target Rate Part IV: 2024 → 2025 Growth You are here ➡️ Part V: 2026 Preview A Quick Peak into the Past Before the 2025 season kicked off, I put together an in-depth preview of what the Chicago Bears offense might look like under Ben Johnson. It also happened to be the first article I ever wrote here on Windy City Gridiron.

In that piece, I laid out some projected numbers for the 2025 Bears offense. Using a (very) crude Python script, I ran 1,000 simulations of the upcoming season to estimate things like run/pass split, play-action rate, and even Caleb Williams’ projected stat line. Among other things, the model forecasted notable increases in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and yards per rush.

So… how did it do? With the addition of Ben Johnson, paired with an expected Year 2 leap from Caleb Williams, the model predicted offensive growth across the board. Most impressively, it nailed the run/pass split almost exactly.

It did overshoot a bit when it came to increases in yards per attempt and yards per completion, but that was largely driven by historical data from Ben Johnson-led offenses. At the time, there was no way to account for the specific identity he would build in 2025, which leaned more into explosive plays rather than the high-percentage, underneath passing game that defined his time in Detroit. From a macro, team-wide perspective, the model did a solid job capturing overall offensive growth.