The Yankees can make it late early in April
A stretch against some bad teams gives the club a chance to bank wins
Apr 3, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) celebrates with center fielder Trent Grisham (12) and right fielder Aaron Judge (99) after defeating the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Yes, it’s true that you can’t win a division in April. In the season’s first week and a bit, though, the Yankees have done their very best.
Writing ahead of Saturday evening’s ( ultimately successful ) showdown with the Marlins, New York was a sterling 6-1, the best record in baseball behind a staff that’s been very difficult to square up. Crucially, this run has happened at the same time the Red Sox, one of the teams expected to battle in a three-team race atop the AL East, fell to 2-5, while the Blue Jays were a fine-if-unimpressive at 4-3. This first round of games has translated to some pretty interesting, if a little-too-early to be predictive, changes in playoff odds.
FanGraphs had the Yankees a 38. 3-percent chance to win the East, with a 71-percent overall chance of making the playoffs. Compare that to 23.
8/61. 2 percent and 17. 9/53 percent for the Sox and Jays respectively, and the Bombers were considered slim favorites to return another division title.