Edinburgh season rests on causing almighty upset in Dublin
For Edinburgh - a mammoth and mortifying 17 points adrift of a United Rugby Championship top-eight play-off place - this is their season now. Lose on Sunday and it's all over. The first week of April and it's all on the line already because they're not hauling themselves into the top eight at this stage, a minimum target they have so dismally failed to meet.
The backdrop is a mess for Edinburgh. Their fans are angry and confused about head coach Sean Everitt getting a two-year extension to his contract. There was no evidence to support him getting that deal.
It came as a shock and has gone down badly. The team is now languishing in the URC with four wins from 14 games. They've beaten Benetton (12th in the table) twice, Scarlets (14th) and the Ospreys (11th).
Hardly stellar triumphs. It's been a lamentable season, a run of failure that has led to three of Everitt's coaches being removed for next season but not Everitt himself. They got a last-16 spot by dint of wins over Toulon and Gloucester (encouraging) while getting destroyed 33-0 away to Castres and 63-10 away to Bath (embarrassing).
So, while this is a game to prolong their season, it's difficult to see how they survive away to a side that has eight Test Lions in the starting line-up, an 88-cap All Black, Rieko Ioane, in the midfield, a winger in Tommy O'Brien who scored twice against Scotland at the Aviva last month and a centre in Jamie Osborne, who also scored against Scotland plus Italy, England and Wales to boot. You could have thrown a World Cup winner in there as well, but the mountainous lock RG Snyman is injured. Edinburgh and Scotland great Chris Paterson has ideas on what has ailed his old team this season, reflecting on their soul-destroying start in the URC in which they lost to Zebre by three points and to Munster and Cardiff by just one.