In The Lab: Astros Bench WAR Projections

If you have been reading this series, you know that we started at 48 wins because that is the generally recognized replacement level. From there, we added 20 wins for the lineup, ten wins for the rotation, and five wins for the bullpen. It might seem like an arbitrary number for each, but that is where we got by adding up the players projected to spend most of the season on the 26 man roster.

That leaves us with the four bench players. However, before we get there we should run through some established caveats. The first and most obvious one is that the Astros historically will use between 35 and 40 players on the season.

There will be injuries, promotions, demotions, and trades. Two things can be true at the same time. On the one hand, Dana Brown and Joe Espada can marshal those resources effectively and squeeze out a win or two over the course of the season.

On the other hand, we can never assume that. It is what I would call the law of zero. Serendipity is a thing, but it is not a thing any of us can quantify.