Packers third best drafters in NFL under Brian Gutekunst per draft model
A model analyzing the value teams find in the draft has ranked Green Bay as 3rd best in the NFL since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM in 2018.
Evaluating how well a team has drafted is an inherently subjective exercise, and it can be difficult to nail down what the measures of success should be. One particular model has sought to do just that, and quantify the quality of drafting for all 32 NFL teams, and since Brian Gutekunst took the reins in 2018, the Packers have graded out very well. According to StickToTheModel’s draft rankings , the Packers ranked third in the NFL in ‘draft value added’ since 2018, which measures how much value teams find in the draft, relative to where they pick.
The only two teams ranked ahead of Green Bay were the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers. Gutekunst’s Packers also ranked second in ‘hit rate’ behind only the Bills. Hits are quantified as players who exceeded their expected performance based on where they were drafted.
The Packers are tied for the fifth-lowest ‘bust rate’ in Gutekunst’s tenure, which is a ‘top pick’ who has performed poorly or is out of the league. Those are all impressive rankings, and speak to Gutekunst’s ability to find value and not strike out too often. He has certainly built a strong foundation via the draft since turning the page from the Aaron Rodgers era.
If there is an area he could stand to improve, it is in finding top tier players. It has been a regular talking point that Gutekunst has found good players consistently, but not enough great ones. Green Bay has not fared terribly in the model’s ‘star rate’ rankings, sitting tied for 13th, but it is the weakest part of the team’s overall profile since 2018, and with no first-round pick in 2026 or 2027, their ranking is unlikely to improve any time soon.