ESPN predicts winner of Auburn vs Illinois State in NIT Final Four

After a week away from the hardwood, the Auburn Tigers return to action Thursday to face Illinois State in the semifinals of the 2026 NIT at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Auburn was favored to win in every game of the NIT so far, and delivered. Is the case the same for Thursday's game?

ESPN expects Auburn to continue the trend and cruise into the NIT finals by giving them an 80. 7% chance to beat the Illinois State Redbirds on Thursday. Both Auburn and Illinois State have won four of their last five games, with their last two games being decided by less than 10 points.

The Tigers recently defeated Nevada, 75-69, behind a solid first-half effort that kept the Wolfpack from storming back to steal the win. The case was the same in Auburn's second-round win over Seattle U, where they fought off a tough Redhawks comeback effort that cut the Tigers' 11-point lead with 0:34 remaining to a four-point lead with less than 10 seconds remaining. Illinois State took a 10-point lead into halftime of its quarterfinal game with Dayton, and led by as many as 19 points in the second half to roll to a low-scoring victory, 61-55.

Neither Illinois State nor Wake Forest held a lead larger than 10 points in the NIT second round, but it was the Redbirds who stole the lead late. Chase Walker nailed a free throw with 3:38 remaining in the game to push Illinois State ahead, 69-68, and the Redbirds would not yield another lead to beat the Demon Deacons on the road, 78-75. The Tigers and Redbirds do battle on Thursday at 8:30 p.