Analysis: Would Oscar Piastri have won Japanese GP without a safety car?

Did the safety car, triggered by the heavy crash of Haas driver Oliver Bearman on lap 22, cost Oscar Piastri the victory in Japan? At that point, the McLaren driver was in the projected race lead and had already completed his mandatory pitstop. However, Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli benefited from the timing of the safety car and was able to make a comparatively inexpensive tyre change ...