How do Packers break their own draft rules? Explaining outlier picks

Whether it is a general philosophy or specific benchmarks at certain positions, the Green Bay Packers have established a method of scouting and drafting which has been in place for the better part of 35 years, passed on from one general manager to the next. While some of their principles are more rigid, there are outlier draft picks every year which mean they bend or break the trends established over the decades. By examining Green Bay’s recent history of going outside their usual preferences, it can become easier to anticipate what they will or won’t be flexible with moving forward, including in this upcoming draft.

Since Brian Gutekunst took over as general manager in 2018, he has veered from the benchmarks set by his predecessor Ted Thompson in one way or another a total of 34 times in eight drafts. That means on average, more than four picks per year are an outlier in some way. The most common "rule breaking" came via drafting six players who produced the worst result in a specific pre-draft test at their respective position compared to previously drafted Packers but with the caveat that they qualified in another drill within the same discipline.

The highest profile example is Lukas Van Ness, whose 31” vertical jump is the worst Green Bay has drafted in an EDGE player since at least 2005, but his 9-10 broad jump made up for it. This makes sense, as a prospect’s overall testing in the core facets (speed, explosiveness, agility) is more important than ticking every box exactly. There are examples of one strong agility test making up for a poor one, or a lineman’s 10-second split overcoming a poor 40 time.

There were a further three times where the Packers took a player who posted the worst score in a given drill compared to the team’s previous picks, but in those instances Green Bay had drafted players with poor results in those disciplines in the past, just not quite as bad. Travis Glover set a new low for a Packers offensive tackle in terms of the 3-cone, but they have taken offensive tackle prospects with poor agility before. It was the same situation with Tariq Carpenter at linebacker and Shemar Jean-Charles at cornerback.