Why (and why not) St. John’s men’s basketball could reach the Final Four

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) celebrates after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images The Red Storm are a third of the way to the mountain-top following their electric Second Round victory over Kansas, in which Dylan Darling scored the game-winner at the buzzer .

Now, their climb will become as challenging as it gets. Awaiting them in their first Sweet Sixteen appearance in 27 years is the number one overall seed Duke Blue Devils (34-2), who are strong, yet not prohibitive favorites by seven points. The Athletic currently gives St.

John’s a 10% chance of reaching its first Final Four in 41 years, about the same probability that Cal Baptist had of defeating Kansas. It’s possible, but the odds are long. While St.

John’s is a top-25 team, all signs point to Duke ending the Red Storm’s season in Washington, D. C. , on Friday (7:10 p.