Does running more in a game actually make a difference?
However, in just a quarter of the games (78/309), victory has gone to the team that covered the least distance – with the remaining 84 games ending in draws. Despite criticism around their commitment on Saturday, Chelsea's results this season appear to be considerably better than fellow Premier League sides who have taken a similarly less active approach. The Blues have won 42% of their matches despite being outrun in every game, a 17% increase on the league's average.
The above data gently suggests that teams that run more than their opponents are more likely to win - but the data is messy and any patterns have to be considered in context. Chelsea are bottom of the distance-run rankings while two other clubs that are in the top six of the Premier League – Liverpool and Aston Villa – are also in the bottom five of the running charts. Leeds, who are second for distance covered, are in a relegation battle in 15th while Liverpool were ranked 16th for distance covered last season yet won the title.
Running data can be useful in painting a clearer picture of how a match has panned out but in isolation it is unlikely to reliably predict how often a team wins. What it does more reliably help explain is a team's playing style. Importantly, when a team's style of play matches the skillset of their players, teams are more likely to win, irrespective of distance ran alone.
A good example of this is that the day after Chelsea lost to Everton, Nottingham Forest beat Spurs 3-0 despite running almost 5km less. Forest impressed last season, missing out on Champions League football by one point, playing in a counter-attacking fashion that suited the strengths of their players. Reverting to that approach against Spurs allowed them to pick moments in which they exerted energy, attacking the box decisively when spaces opened up – as a more naturally counter-attacking side.
This suited the strengths of players like Morgan Gibbs-White and Taiwo Awoniyi, who both scored. Aston Villa have the best win percentage of teams when being outrun in the Premier League this season with 52%. Unai Emery, in a similar fashion, has opted for tactics that focus less on running and more on maximising his players.