Free agency is a necessary evil, but a risky bet for NFL teams

Isaiah Likely beating Derek Stingley for a TD | Getty Images The New York Giants have primarily been fishing at the shallow end of the free agent pool this off-season, their only (monetarily) significant signings being tight end Isaiah Likely (three years, $40 million) and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (three years, $36 million). That may sound like a lot of money to some, but each one is a few million less per year than Wan’Dale Robinson signed for, and let’s not even talk about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose $42. 15 million per year deal exceeds in one season what Likely or Edmunds will see over the life of their contracts, if indeed they collect the full amount.

Of course signing one’s own free agent to a second contract is different from bringing in a new player who has never played with his new teammates or been coached by his new coaches. That unknown element makes every external free agent signing a significant risk. How much of a risk has been studied by Bill Barnwell in a new piece for ESPN.

Barnwell’s analysis is subjective. For each of 500 free agents, he assigns a grade of 0 (disaster) to 6 (All-Pro caliber), based on his assessment of what each player was before signing vs. after given what was expected.

He uses Robinson as his example to explain his grading system. Robinson’s four years, $70 million with $38M guaranteed makes him the 23rd largest AAV for NFL wide receivers and is “pretty standard” for a top-50 free agent according to Barnwell. This is what Barnwell says he’d have to do to achieve his different grades: 6: 1,400 yard seasons on a yearly basis, which of course Robinson has never been close to.