Predicting Wisconsin’s chances of retaining its starters

Wisconsin forward Nolan Winter (31) misses a dunk after being fouled by Maryland guard Isaiah Watts (12)during the first half of their game Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Coming off a uniquely discouraging loss to High Point in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64, Greg Gard and the Wisconsin Badgers don’t have time to lick their wounds , as the transfer portal madness will be upon us before you can say “Still No Sweet 16 Since 2017. ” With this in mind, here are my very early best guesses for the chances of the Badgers retaining their guys.

Part 2, which will cover rotational players, will drop soon. John Blackwell Let’s dive right in here with the Badgers’ trickiest retention target. I want to be up front with the fact that I have zero insider information on this, but I’ve talked to enough folks who cover the program to have a distinct vibe that he’s quite possibly gone.

Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan State have been the most frequently linked suitors for a player who grew up in Detroit and whose father played for the Illini. Coming off a season with many highs, but a few obvious regressions, especially on defense—along with admitted “struggles” off the court—it’s natural to wonder if Blackwell might be looking for a fresh start (and bigger paycheck). The fact that there will be more money on the table elsewhere (I don’t think it will be the NBA) doesn’t help the Badgers’ chances.

But my vibe is that Gard, the coach who believed in Blackwell when none from other Big Ten programs did , will give Blackwell a very fair offer with a raise and let the chips fall where they may. High-scoring wings with middling defense are easier to find in the portal than top-quality point guards or bigs with the diverse skills of the player in my next evaluation. Chances of Retention 50%.