Ira Winderman: Potential NBA expansion should have Heat’s attention
MIAMI — The long game rarely has been the game of preference for the live-in-the-moment Miami Heat, save, perhaps, for when Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg amassed in advance every possible cent of salary-cap space ahead of the 2010 free-agency haul of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. In that regard, news this past week of a seemingly inevitable NBA expansion — most likely to Seattle and Las Vegas in 2028-29 — hardly impacts the thinking at the moment of yet another at-all-costs Heat scramble for the playoffs. But in a salary-cap, luxury-tax, lottery league, potential expansion does matter, because the success of many who have bypassed the Heat in the playoff race has been predicated on advance planning, living for the future instead of Heat-like living largely in the moment.
So, yes, what is expected to happen in 2028-29, pending Board of Governors approval, will very much resonate at 601 Biscayne. And that could, by the end of this month, require Riley, Elisburg, draft guru Adam Simon and the ownership wing of Micky Arison and Nick Arison to take the long view. Among the reasons expansion has remained on hold since 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats, now the Hornets, entered the league, is the complexities at play.
For the Heat, such factors include … — Expansion draft: The expected model for an expansion draft is that teams would be allowed to protect eight players, with such a list not allowed to include impending unrestricted free agents. Regardless, a team must make available for the expansion draft at least one player under contract, eligible to lose no more than one player in the expansion draft. At the moment, it is far too early to forecast such a Heat approach for the 2028 offseason, considering only Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic and Kasparas Jakucionis (team option) are under Heat contract for that offseason.
For purposes of such an exercise, if the expansion draft were this offseason, a possible eight-pack of Heat players protected would be Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr. , Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell and Dru Smith. (By protecting Smith, it would put Jovic, and his now questionable extension, into the expansion pool.
) Because they are or could become impending free agents, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio and Keshad Johnson would not need to be protected or exposed. —NBA draft: This is another curious aspect for the Heat, because if the first-round pick due the Hornets from the Terry Rozier trade goes to Charlotte in the 2027 draft (it is lottery protected that year), it would mean that Heat would own their 2028 first-rounder. Therefore, having a pair of expansion teams enter the draft calculus in 2028 could push the Heat pick further back, if they wind up retaining their 2028 first-rounder.
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