Over- And Underseeded Teams In March Madness Based On Predictive Rank
Predictive metrics vs committee seeding reveals undervalued and overvalued teams, highlighting where bracket inefficiencies create opportunities in March Madness picks.
Chairs with March Madness logo are seen prior to the first round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Buffalo, N. Y. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura) Copyright 2026 The Associated Press.
All rights reserved. Selection Sunday always brings debate. Each year, the NCAA selection committee blends résumé-based results with predictive analytics to build the bracket, creating inevitable gaps between how teams are seeded and how strong they actually are.
This year, résumé-based metrics dominated seeding decisions . Predictive metrics have quietly proven their value in March. Last year, brackets built around KenPom projections would have landed in roughly the 97.
5th percentile , underscoring how well efficiency-based predictive models capture true team strength compared to traditional résumé evaluation. This analysis isolates that predictive signal. By averaging three widely used efficiency metrics , KenPom, Bart Torvik T-Rank and ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), a consensus ranking of team strength emerges.
Continue to the original source for the full article.