What are the most likely upsets in the first round of March Madness?
Breaking down the history of March Madness upsets and what the matchups are in 2026.
What are the most likely upsets in the first round of March Madness? originally appeared on The Sporting News . Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here .
Throughout the first round of March Madness, everyone is always looking to see which high-seeded team will fall first. In history, there have been 333 instances of a higher seed upsetting a lower seed, which by definition is an upset. Some upsets occur more often than not, with the 8/9 matchup being the most common upset, with 83 occasions.
Obviously, the 1/16 upset is the least likely upset, with just two instances in history. With upsets happening annually in the first round, we’re taking a look at how many upsets have happened for each first-round matchup and the matchups for each scenario in the 2026 bracket. March Madness Upset History 1 vs.
16 With just two upsets in history for no. 16 seeds, it’s hard to imagine any of the top seeds in this year's bracket falling. Especially with all four of them being the top ranked teams in the KenPom rankings as well.
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