March Madness 2026 predictions: Here are the most popular 12-seed upset picks for the NCAA tournament
In the previous 10 men's NCAA tourneys, the No. 12 seed has won 14 out of 40 games over the No. 5 seed.
Everyone loves an upset in the NCAA tournament — and No. 12 seeds have historically been more than happy to oblige in the first round. In the previous 10 men’s NCAA tourneys, the No.
12 seed has won 14 out of 40 games over the No. 5 seed, a 35% win rate — which tracks with the all-time win rate of 12-seeds (35. 6%) since 1985.
Only twice in the previous 10 tourneys — 2018 and 2023 — have the No. 12 seeds gone winless. In 2019, three No.
12s pulled off first-round upsets: Murray State, Oregon and Liberty. In 34 of the last 40 tournaments overall, at least one 12-seed has won in the first round. That’s one of the most reliable upset patterns in all of sports.