March Madness upset picks: NCAA Tournament first-round surprises

The history books will rightfully remember last year's March Madness as a chalk, with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four and three No. 2 seeds in the Elite Eight.

But as the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament first round gets set to begin on Thursday, March 19, it's perhaps worth noting what happened to the bracket on the first two days of college basketball's biggest event in 2025. Five double-digit seeds pulled off upsets in the first round, including four from non-power conferences. Only one (No.

10 seed Arkansas) advanced to the Sweet 16 , which significantly reduced the brackets busted and eventually led to just the second Final Four featuring all No. 1 seeds since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is also seen as top-heavy by college basketball experts, but there are several intriguing opportunities for a potential Cinderella to emerge this year.

Here's a look at five March Madness first-round games that could produce an upset this week: MARCH MADNESS: Predicting every Men's NCAA tournament game using AI No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina The school that went from the original First Four all the way to the Final Four 15 years ago is a potential Cinderella again in the South region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket after a run to the Atlantic-10 Conference tournament championship.