Legends Auerbach & Fanta Break Down This Season’s March Madness Mysteries!
Nicole Auerbach and John Fanta see these teams as being on upset alert in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Are NIL and the transfer portal causing a reduction in upsets in the NCAA Tournament? Ultimately, we don't have enough information to make a call on that, yet. We're only a few years into college teams being able to pay players, and name, image and likeness rules are constantly evolving.
But last year was one of the chalkiest tournaments we've seen, with only four total upsets (using the definition of a team beating another that is five seed lines or mor ahead of them, i. e. 11 over 6).
The year before had seven in the first round but only two in the rounds thereafter. There is an argument to be made that this system encourages players who thrive at mid-major schools to transfer to power conference schools with higher NIL budgets. By the time those players are experienced and ready to lead an NCAA Tournament team, they're doing so for teams already stacked with talent.
If upsets are getting fewer and farther between, that means each one is more precious. Nicole Auerbach and John Fanta discussed these developments and teams that should be on upset alert in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. No.