Absolutely Spectacular: Exciting Matches Come Up Short Again
In search of Cinderellas: The Odds of First Round Upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Now that the Field of 68 is set, it is time to start making decisions as to who will make your Final Four, who will be your Cinderellas, and what you will buy when you win your pool. Be honest, we all think about how we will spend that money before we win it. Before you earn that dough, though, you have to make some difficult decisions.
Prior to making those choices, though, it is important to recognize the odds of your 12-seed to knock off the 5 and the chance that the 14 you love will actually pull the rug out from under the 3 you don't trust. Let's start with the 16-seeds: Siena, LIU, UMBC/Howard and Prairie View/Lehigh. Your odds are long but dare to dream.
Two times in 160 games (1. 25%) since the field expanded in 1985, a 16-seed has slayed a giant. Not sure that Duke, Arizona, Michigan, or Florida break a sweat in the opening round but it is possible.
The odds a 15 defeats a 2 jump to 6. 9% since the field expanded in 1985 and in fact all the way to 13. 6% since 2013.