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Underdogs have been overmatched in recent NCAA tournaments.
For many years, part of the charm of the NCAA tournament was underdogs winning in the early rounds. March Madness was good for underdog bettors too. After the past two tournaments, it might be time to reevaluate.
The NCAA tournament has become chalky. That was a big theme last season when favorites went 12-0 straight up over the second weekend, leading to all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four.
Bettors know the trend started in 2024. From 2015-2023, underdogs were a profitable 136-115-2 against the spread in the first round, via Fox Sports . In 2024 there were 12 underdogs that won straight up in the first round, the most since 2001, but that masked a changing trend.
Overall in the 2024 first round underdogs were 14-18 against the spread. It was more pronounced for the best teams. Over the first two rounds that year the top four seeds were 26-4 straight up and 21-9 against the spread, the best ATS record ever for top four seeds according to Evan Abrams of Action Network .
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